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  1. 2 dni temu · There is a 48-in-100 chance that Trump wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes. See a new scenario. 538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,”...

  2. 2 dni temu · Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and...

  3. Overview and Live Results: Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island Primaries. September 10, 2024. The final three statewide primaries before the November 5 general election take place Tuesday. An interactive electoral map derived from 538's probabilistic model for the 2024 presidential election.

  4. 9 wrz 2024 · Harris carries the Rust Belt. Harris wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, matching Biden’s 2020 outcome in those states. Use our "what-if" tool to pick a winner in each state and see how it...

  5. 5 dni temu · A group of 538 electors are the only people who actually cast their ballot for President due to the Electoral College. ... Thirty-five states and D.C. have laws against faithless electors.

  6. The president and vice president of the United States are elected by the Electoral College, which consists of 538 electors from the fifty states and Washington, D.C. Electors are selected state-by-state, as determined by the laws of each state.

  7. 538 uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, economics, and American society.

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