Search results
Latest estimate: 2.8 percent — October 29, 2024. The final GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.8 percent on October 29, down from 3.3 percent on October 25.
- View an Archive of Recent Commentaries
November 01, 2024. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP...
- China's Macroeconomy
The model laid out in "Trends and Cycles in China's...
- Taylor Rule Utility
Taylor noted in his paper that his choice was close to the...
- Research & Data
As part of the nation's central bank, the Atlanta Fed plays...
- GDPNow: A Model for GDP “Nowcasting”
The GDPNow model forecasts GDP growth by aggregating 13...
- View an Archive of Recent Commentaries
21 wrz 2024 · We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.
GDPNow is a nowcasting model for gross domestic product (GDP) growth that synthesizes the bridge equation approach relating GDP subcomponents to monthly source data with factor model and Bayesian vector autoregression approaches.
22 wrz 2021 · In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on September 21-22, 2021, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2021 to 2024 and over the longer run.
GDP Growth Rate in the United States is expected to be 1.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States GDP Growth Rate is projected to trend around 1.80 percent in 2025, according to our econometric models.
26 lip 2011 · The GDPNow model forecasts GDP growth by aggregating 13 subcomponents that make up GDP with the chain-weighting methodology used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Using current vintage data, out-of-sample GDPNow model forecasts are found to be more accurate than a number of statistical benchmarks since 2000.
18 wrz 2024 · Projections of real gross domestic product growth are fourth-quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy.
