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We study the effects of local partisanship in a model of electoral competition. Voters care about policy, but they also care about the identity of the party in power. These party preferences vary from person to person, but they are also correlated within each state.
This report will examine identified swing states utilizing the top 25%, or 12, states that identify with each of the first three criteria from Hecht and Schultz: competitiveness, occurrence of party flips, and bellwether status.
a ‘partial’ swing-state bias. A central goal of this paper is an empirical test for the swing-state bias, together with the more formidable task of measuring the size of the bias. The theory applies to any area of policy-making, and would predict a swing-state bias in tax and subsidy
1 sty 2018 · PDF | On Jan 1, 2018, John McLaren and others published A Swing-State Theorem, with Evidence | Find, read and cite all the research you need on ResearchGate
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15 maj 2023 · For geopolitical swing states to pursue their preferences requires that the world’s two preeminent geopolitical powers—the U.S. and China—don’t let their bilateral relationship devolve into all-out war, shifting geopolitical decisions from ones of preferences to ones of survival.
In United States politics, a swing state (also known as battleground state, toss-up state, or purple state) is any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate in a statewide election, most often referring to presidential elections, by a swing in votes.
