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This paper is structured into three parts. Part 1 provides a discussion of the problem of cost overruns in the aerospace industry and some of the findings from traditional cost overrun studies. Part 2 talks about human irrationality and how that opens the door to biasing the estimate.
The number and magnitude of cost overruns associated with large Department of Defense (DoD) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) programs highlight the difficulties in developing and promulgating accurate cost estimates.
17 lut 2021 · • A cost estimate is a prediction • Customers and professional estimators make predictions • Most predictions fail to address regression to the mean • Daniel Kahneman (Thinking, Fast and Slow; p. 188): “…the prediction of the future is not distinguished from an evaluation of the current evidence –prediction matches evaluation.
22 lut 2016 · These built-in biases to our thinking directly affect how we develop our cost estimates and how those cost estimates are used. We cost estimators can use this knowledge of biases to improve our cost estimates and also to improve how we communicate and work with our customers.
15 wrz 2024 · At its core, cost-benefit analysis in psychology is a mental process we use to weigh the potential advantages and disadvantages of a decision. It’s like having a tiny accountant in your brain, tallying up the pros and cons before you make a move.
1 cze 2021 · The paradigm demands that cost estimates represent objective behavioral costs. •. The cost estimates were found to be sensitive to actual behavioral costs. •. Environmental attitude was found to offset the actual costs of behavior.
15 lip 2023 · Across three studies (Ns = 263, 143, and 170) conducted in STEM and non-STEM classes, we sought to disentangle the relations between emotional cost, psychological cost, and anxiety. We examined evidence for the structural, discriminant, and predictive validity of the three constructs.
