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Allan J. Lichtman. readers of Social Education of my predicted presidential elec-tion results based on the Keys to the White House. The Keys are a historical-base. index system for predicting the results of American presidential elections that . ave been successful since 1984. The Keys gauge the strength and performance of the party holding.
13 KEYS PREDICTION. Developed by Professor Allan Lichtman in 1981, The 13 Keys are statements that favor victory (in the popular vote count) for the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win the popular ...
214 Chapter 14 The Keys to the White House: A Preliminary Forecast for 2012 Allan J. Lichtman American University, USA ABSTRACT The Keys to the White House are an index-based prediction system that retrospectively account for the popular-vote winners of every US presidential election from 1860 to 1980 and prospectively forecast the winners of ...
The Keys to the White House, also known as the 13 Keys, is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States. It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting prediction methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction .
Remember the rules: in order for the incumbent party to lose, 6 or more keys must be false, whereas if 5 or fewer are false, they win re-election. Here's my analysis of the keys from reading the book and watching Lichtman's youtube channel regularly:
1 lip 2024 · In the updated 2024 edition, he applies the keys to every presidential election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2024 race. In doing so, he dispels much of the mystery...
4 paź 2024 · Historian Allan Lichtman has accurately predicted the outcome of 9 out of the last 10 presidential elections, and he's done it without the use of polling data. Instead, he uses a set of 13...
