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r/fivethirtyeight: Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight delivers analysis of politics from campaign fundraising to election day and beyond.
Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight delivers analysis of politics from campaign fundraising to election day and beyond. Members Online Quinnipiac National Poll: Biden-Trump Matchup Margin Razor Thin With Nearly 1 In 5 Voters Likely To Change Their Minds, Biden +1 (48/47), +3 (41/38/14/2/2)
Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight delivers analysis of politics from campaign fundraising to election day and beyond. Members Online Echelon Swing States Poll: Trump +6 (51/45) in Arizona, +10 (52/42) in Georgia, +6 (51/45) in Michigan, +7 (51/44) in Nevada, +4 (49/45) in Pennslyvania.
Just as an example of what I mean by “demographic and social shifts”: People tend to rely on stereotypes for how people vote, and in 2020 that would have led you to the wrong conclusion for why Trump lost and Biden won, for example every demographic voted more for Trump except black women (expected) and white men (not expected).
14 wrz 2023 · Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight delivers analysis of politics from campaign fundraising to election day and beyond. Members Online G Elliott Morris on Twitter: " The difference between Biden’s margin in the Electoral College tipping point state (likely PA, others possible) and the national popular vote is closer to 1.5 points in our forecast today today, vs 3.8 last time."
8 mar 2024 · Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight delivers analysis of politics from campaign fundraising to election day and beyond. Members Online Ronald Brownstein on X: I realize they are delivering national messages, but its still worth filing away that in their first post-SOTU stops Biden hit NH and Harris hit MN, which are not places Ds would prefer (or expect) to worry about in 2024.
18 wrz 2023 · I pretty much stopped listening to the podcast when Clare Malone got fired. I'm not sure who the target audience is anymore for fivethirtyeight in general is without Nate, Perry, and the other staff they laid off. You'd think converting them into ABC politics would defeat the purpose of the acquisition in the first place.
28 lut 2023 · Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight delivers analysis of politics from campaign fundraising to election day and beyond. Members Online Biden leads Trump by 9% (88% vs. 79%) and ~40k raw votes in the Wisconsin primaries, "Uninstructed" tops out below double-digits against Biden
1 mar 2024 · Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight delivers analysis of politics from campaign fundraising to election day and beyond. Members Online Why has the media continued to downplay and underestimate Donald Trump's support in the Primary or his chances at winning the Presidency again in 2023?
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