Search results
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 2.3 percent on November 1, down from 2.7 percent on October 31. After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau, the employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Manufacturing ISM ...
- View an Archive of Recent Commentaries
November 01, 2024. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP...
- China's Macroeconomy
The model laid out in "Trends and Cycles in China's...
- Taylor Rule Utility
Taylor noted in his paper that his choice was close to the...
- Research & Data
As part of the nation's central bank, the Atlanta Fed plays...
- View an Archive of Recent Commentaries
5 dni temu · GDPNow is a nowcasting model for gross domestic product (GDP) growth that synthesizes the bridge equation approach relating GDP subcomponents to monthly source data with factor model and Bayesian vector autoregression approaches.
21 wrz 2024 · We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
1 wrz 2024 · This study employs the MIDAS-LASSO model, which represents a penalized approach designed for mixed-frequency data, to forecast US GDP growth rates, while considering a vast array of macroeconomic indicators, including the Macroeconomic Attention Index (MAI) of Fisher et al. (2022).
GDP Growth Rate in the United States is expected to be 1.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States GDP Growth Rate is projected to trend around 2.00 percent in 2025, according to our econometric models.
Outlook-at-Risk offers a unified approach to measuring downside risk to real GDP growth, upside risk to the unemployment rate, and two-sided risks to CPI inflation. We present estimates of the conditional distribution of the future evolution of these key economic variables based on the relationship with the level of financial conditions.
31 sie 2022 · The consensus forecast is that U.S. real GDP growth will return to positive territory following declines in the first and second quarters of 2022. Current inflation far exceeds the Fed’s 2% target, and while inflation is expected to continue decelerating, the medium-term outlook is uncertain.
